The results of the 2000 United States Census contained both good and bad news for the City of Cleveland. The bad news was that the city's population continued to decline, to 478,403 from 505,616 a decade earlier. The good news was that the decrease of 27,213 represented the smallest loss since the 1950s.

But even the good news contained some disturbing trends, according to a study from the Center on Urban Poverty and Social Change, part of CWRU's Mandel School of Applied Social Sciences. The study, by William J. Sabol, associate director of the center, and Kristen Mikelbank, a research assistant, showed that in the 1990s 64,000 more people moved out of Cleveland than moved in. That loss was partially offset by a surplus of about 37,000 births over deaths, but even that uptick in the ratio of births to deaths had largely leveled off by the end of the decade.

Another significant finding of the study is that for the first time blacks comprise more than half the population of the city, with 246,000 residents, or 51.5 percent. During the decade there were about 26,000 more births than deaths among blacks, but 15,000 black residents left the city for a net gain of about 11,000. By contrast, 53,000 white residents left the city, while there were 9,300 more births than deaths among whites, for a net decrease of 43,700.

"I was very surprised by these out-migration numbers," Sabol said. "They mean that about one in five white residents left the city and about 6.5 percent of black residents."

For census purposes, Cleveland is divided into 36 neighborhoods, or statistical planning areas. Nine of these neighborhoods, including the one in which CWRU is located, experienced population increases. In four of those, the increase was due to more people moving in than leaving, while in the other five it was the result of more births than deaths.

Among the four that had net in-migration of residents, two-University and Downtown-were at least partially due to more people living in "group quarters." For the University neighborhood, that meant primarily CWRU housing and nursing homes. For Downtown, that meant primarily jails.

According to Sabol, the study evolved from a project the center undertook on behalf of Neighborhood Progress Inc., a Cleveland nonprofit community development organization.

"NPI asked us to do an in-depth analysis of the 2000 census data to get a sense of the big picture, so they could develop a strategic plan for housing investment," he said.

The center completed its work for NPI, but its findings piqued Sabol's curiosity.

"I felt there was more to look at. I wondered about the underlying dynamics of the changes taking place in the city's population," he said.

The focus of the research shifted somewhat following Mayor Jane Campbell's "State of the City" address in late January, in which she set a goal of bringing the city's population back over the 500,000 level by the time of the 2010 census.

"Five hundred thousand is an important goal in that it relates to certain levels of federal funding and from a psychological perspective," Sabol said. "But you also have to look at how realistic the goal is given the long-term trends."

The study found that in the North and South Collinwood and North and South Broadway neighborhoods, relatively small changes in total populations masked significant changes in racial makeup. For example, the North Collinwood neighborhood's population grew by 508 residents. But 4,670 more whites left than moved in, while 5,068 more blacks moved in than left.

Sabol said that one way to stem the city's population decline is to look at the overall "bundle" of services and amenities people had in Cleveland compared with what they have when they move to the suburbs.

"It's unlikely that in the foreseeable future the city's public schools will compete with most suburban districts, but perhaps there are other things the city can offer that will attract middle class families with children," he said.

New housing is another important element in retaining residents and attracting new ones, but it has to be developed in sufficient concentration to create a "spillover" effect to the surrounding neighborhood. Sabol said that is difficult to accomplish politically, however.

"If you throw a lot of resources into developing enough housing in one neighborhood to really make a splash, it probably means some other neighborhood gets ignored," he said. "Any way you look at it, it's a huge challenge to reverse a 50-year population decline."