Gurarie's Reaserch

Agent based modeling of diabetes and its complications in heterogeneous populations

I. Long term goals

A. Develop and implement in-host models of basic human physiology and metabolism with nutritional inputs, physical activity, diagnostics and interventions

B. Calibrate such models for different individuals and stages of disease, different population groups (age, gender, behavior), using physiological data, clinical trials, and population surveys

C. Develop dynamic models of slow disease progression and associated comorbidities (CVD, hypertension, Metabolic Syndrome), within typical health care setup and procedures

D. Apply models of parts (i) – (iii) for Agent-Based Communities (ABC) adopted for specific groups, population strata, and heterogeneous communities

E. Explore long term predictions, control-intervention, cost-benefit analysis

II. Agent level models

· Basic physiology and metabolism: Metabolites (glucose, fats, glycogen); Hormones (insulin, glucogon et al)

· Anatomy: digestive system, muscles, pancreas, liver, peripheral blood; a hormone controlling glucose utilization and storage/release.

· Symptoms and diagnostics: OGT, FPG, FSI, HbA1c, HDL, cholesterol, Tg

· Typical interventions/treatment: drugs , diet exercise

· Complications and Comorbidities: (CVD, hypertension, Metabolic syndrome)

· Risk factors for diabetes and associated complications

· treatment: prognosis, healthcare costs

III. Methodology, data and calibration procedures

· Calibration and validation on different levels and scales

· Basic physiology on fast (daily) time scales

· combinations of biological variables (glucose and insulin on fast and slow time scale) from physiological data.

· Calibrate physiology and development/progression of conditions with clinical data from medical records for individuals.

IV.Communities (ABC)

· Heterogeneous populations stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, behavior (SES)

· Calibration and validation on community level

· Prediction and control

V. Within-host physiology: glycemic feedback control systems (preliminary models and results)

Fast models

Slow models

VI. Selected referencees

I. Long term goals

A. Develop and implement in-host models of basic human physiology and metabolism with nutritional inputs, physical activity, diagnostics and interventions

B. Calibrate such models for different individuals and stages of disease, different population groups (age, gender, behavior), using physiological data, clinical trials, and population surveys

C. Develop dynamic models of slow disease progression and associated comorbidities (CVD, hypertension, Metabolic Syndrome), within typical health care setup and procedures

D. Apply models of parts (i) – (iii) for Agent-Based Communities (ABC) adopted for specific groups, population strata, and heterogeneous communities

E. Explore long term predictions, control-intervention, cost-benefit analysis

II. Agent level models

· Basic physiology and metabolism: Metabolites (glucose, fats, glycogen); Hormones (insulin, glucogon et al)

· Anatomy: digestive system, muscles, pancreas, liver, peripheral blood; a hormone controlling glucose utilization and storage/release.

· Symptoms and diagnostics: OGT, FPG, FSI, HbA1c, HDL, cholesterol, Tg

· Typical interventions/treatment: drugs , diet exercise

· Complications and Comorbidities: (CVD, hypertension, Metabolic syndrome)

· Risk factors for diabetes and associated complications

· treatment: prognosis, healthcare costs

III. Methodology, data and calibration procedures

· Calibration and validation on different levels and scales

· Basic physiology on fast (daily) time scales

· combinations of biological variables (glucose and insulin on fast and slow time scale) from physiological data.

· Calibrate physiology and development/progression of conditions with clinical data from medical records for individuals.

IV.Communities (ABC)

· Heterogeneous populations stratified by age, gender, ethnicity, behavior (SES)

· Calibration and validation on community level

· Prediction and control

V. Within-host physiology: glycemic feedback control systems (preliminary models and results)

Fast models

Slow models

VI. Selected referencees

Links